High winds, hot temperatures and dry air continued to fuel a major wildfire in northern Los Angeles County on Monday that surpassed 15,000 acres burned to become the state’s largest blaze of the year.
The Post fire, burning mostly dry grasses and brush in the Gorman area south of the Tejon Pass, was just 8% contained Monday morning, said Los Angeles County Fire Department spokesperson Craig Little.
“It’s a safe bet that it’s going to grow to be larger at this point,” Little said. “The winds may let up, but it’s going to be higher temperatures and lower humidity.”
Wind gusts near the Post fire reached 60 to 65 mph Sunday night, and while the winds were expected to weaken considerably during the day Monday — to about 40 mph — they are likely to increase again at night, said Ariel Cohen, National Weather Service meteorologist in Oxnard. High temperatures near the fire were forecast to hit the high 80s Monday with low relative humidity, according to the Los Angeles County Fire Department.
“Conditions have continued to support the rapid spread of the wildfire,” Cohen said. Red flag warnings — alerts for dangerous fire conditions — were in effect for the area through at least Tuesday evening, with relative humidity expected to drop into the single digits Tuesday, the weather service warned.
Such severe warnings had also been issued across large swaths of inland California, with the alerts forecasting winds that carry “the potential for rapid fire spread,” from the northern Sacramento Valley through the Antelope Valley.
The dangerous fire conditions kicked up over the weekend, with more than 15 fires sparking since Saturday across California that have burned more than 20,000 acres, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection website. Several triggered evacuations and damaged buildings, including the Post fire in L.A. County.
There had been predictions for a subdued start for the state’s wildfire season this year, given a series of late-season, moisture-heavy storms, but this new spate of fires signaled some increased concern, especially given the size of the Post fire. The L.A. County blaze surpassed the size of Corral fire in San Joaquin County, which ignited earlier this month and consumed 14,168 acres. It had previously been the state’s largest wildfire of the year.
“It’s pretty early and this is pretty large fire,” Little said. “We can always hope, but I’m thinking there’s going to be more of this in the future for the summer. … It’s very early for a fire of this magnitude.”
Such early-season fires are feeding primarily on heat-dried grasses — the growth of which exploded during two back-to-back wet winters. These blazes tend to be less intense compared to those that engulf larger trees or plants, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA. However, more dangerous fires could still be in store later this year, he said.
“We could, in fact, see a very active finish to fire season 2024, but we aren’t there yet, despite the current activity level,” Swain said during a briefing Monday. “This is not yet indicative of really active conditions.”
In particular, the forested, high-elevation areas that have endured some of the state’s worst wildfires in recent memory are still moist following two strong wet seasons, and haven’t yet started to display much wildfire activity.
That could change as conditions get hotter and drier for longer stretches of time, Swain said. The “transition point” is likely to occur sometime in July at lower elevations and August at higher elevations, with fire activity possibly lasting longer than usual due to two years of vegetation build-up.
“Expect September — and maybe even October and parts of November in some areas — to feature very active fire conditions this season,” Swain said, adding that blazes that ignite later in the season could become increasingly intense.
The Post fire on Saturday had already forced about 1,200 people to evacuate from the Hungry Valley Park and Pyramid Lake areas, not far from the 5 Freeway, according to firefighters. An auto shop was destroyed and at least one other building was damaged.
More than 1,100 firefighters and half a dozen helicopters continued to battle the flames Monday. The Ventura County Fire Department and U.S. Forest Service were aiding in the effort.
Not far away, a smaller fire that burned about 300 acres and several outbuildings after starting Sunday afternoon in Lancaster was 100% contained as of Monday morning.
In Sonoma County, the Point fire has burned more than 1,000 acres and several structures south of Lake Sonoma. It was 20% contained Monday morning, according to Cal Fire. The fire started Sunday afternoon.
“Fire activity subsided overnight,” said Ben Nicholls, a division chief with Cal Fire’s Sonoma-Lake-Napa Unit. He said winds were forecast to be weaker than Sunday, which officials hope will improve firefighting conditions and allow crews to strengthen protection near threatened structures.
An evacuation order and warning remains in place for residents near Dry Creek Valley.
In Hesperia, more than 1,100 acres had been burned by the Hesperia fire, prompting road closures and an evacuation warning for the nearby Arrowhead Equestrian Estates. The fire began Saturday before 7 p.m. and as of Monday morning was 30% contained after recording no growth since Sunday, according to Cal Fire and the San Bernardino County Fire Department.
On Monday morning, a vegetation fire broke out in the Hollywood Hills just south of Runyon Canyon, the Los Angeles Fire Department said. Not far from homes in a difficult-to-access area, it took firefighters and a water-dropping helicopter more than an hour to put out the flames. It burned only about 400 square feet, the department said in an alert.
But one weekend won’t predict the state’s fate for the rest of fire season, especially given the number of other factors at play, including the current transition from the El Niño weather pattern to La Niña, Swain said.
La Niña is associated with drier conditions along the West Coast and in Southern California in particular. La Niña was last in place during the state’s three driest years on record, 2020 through 2022, which also saw the state’s worst wildfire seasons on record.
Climate change is also driving warmer global temperatures and a thirstier atmosphere, both of which can extract more water from the landscape and pave the way for hotter and faster fires in the West and other arid areas, Swain said.
What’s more, the upcoming Fourth of July holiday is also often linked to wildfire ignitions and there is potential for that pattern to repeat this year, he added.
“The good news is increasingly in the rear view mirror,” Swain said. “As these conditions continue to rapidly warm up, dry out and get windier, the bad news is that I think that the back half of this season is going to be much more active — with a lot more concerning level of wildfire activity in a lot of areas — than the first half.”
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