Alex Sarr still No. 1 despite rumors, Lakers take big swing, Knicks go offense-defense

Despite the rising stock of Zaccharie Risacher and Donovan Clingan, I still can’t see the Hawks passing on Sarr at No. 1 — assuming they keep the pick. Rim protection is paramount in the NBA these days, even more so for a Hawks defense that finished 27th in the league last season, and Sarr’s 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes with Perth show how much of an impact he can have in that area right away. Offensively, we’re talking about a very high floor as a Dereck Lively II-esque rim-runner, but also seemingly limitless potential if Sarr’s jump shot and ball-handling continue to evolve. The more you dig into it, the more Sarr stands out as the best prospect in the draft, and Atlanta won’t overthink this one.

The talk about Risacher at No. 1 is real, and the Wizards will be happy to swoop him up at No. 2 as he perfectly fits their timeline and a need on the wing (well, Washington has a need everywhere if we’re honest). His tools are obvious — athleticism, shooting, defensive potential — but his ability to improve as a creator for himself and others will determine whether Risacher ends up as a nice, complementary piece or a franchise-level building block.

If there was a high-level two-way wing who was also a knock-down shooter, I think the Rockets would unquestionably take him at No. 3. Since that player doesn’t necessarily exist in this draft, Castle seems like the best option for Houston as a potential lock-down defender who will fit in perfectly with Ime Udoka’s vision. I’ve used the Josh Hart comp all draft season when it comes to Castle — a versatile, defense-first wing/guard who can make winning plays on the other end — so I just don’t think his 3-point shooting deficiencies will keep him off the floor.

I had the Spurs taking Nikola Topic at No. 4 in my last mock, but with his injury I think Sheppard becomes the guy here. What better player to put around Victor Wembanyama than an absolutely dead-eye shooter who can also operate efficiently as a pick-and-roll ball-handler? Defensively there are certainly some issues, but having Wemby waiting at the rim will make Sheppard’s deficiencies on that end much less harmful.

I love Williams more than most draft evaluators, and I think he makes a ton of sense for a new Pistons front office clearly looking to shake things up after the dismissal of Troy Weaver and Monty Williams. I think they’ll give Clingan a look, but Jalen Duren’s presence makes me think they’ll focus more on the wing, where Williams profiles as a perfect two-way complement to Cade Cunningham. He can serve as a floor-spacer and secondary playmaker, with the potential to be as impactful as his brother, OKC wing Jalen Williams, if he reaches his ceiling.

The Hornets can’t afford a miss here, and Knecht is as close to a sure thing as there is in this year’s lottery. As a knock-down, movement shooter, he’ll space the floor for LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller at the very least, and if Knecht continues his growth in creation and attacking closeouts, he can be much more than that.

Yes, the Blazers owe Deandre Ayton a lot of money over the next two seasons, but they shouldn’t let that stop them from taking a defensive building block in Clingan to pair with their dynamic young backcourt of Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. Clingan will be one of the league’s best rim protectors from the day he sets foot on an NBA floor, with some intriguing playmaking upside offensively in addition to his finishing ability.

I had Topic going to the Spurs at No. 4 in my last mock, so I certainly think they’ll take him here if he’s still available. The knee injury may scare off some potential suitors, but this isn’t the 1980s. Players routinely return at full strength from ACL repairs, and as a power guard with an uncanny ability to get to the rim and find teammates, Topic is worth the gamble. San Antonio will have patience as he recovers and could reap some serious benefits when he returns, even if that’s in 2025-26.

There might not be a better fit on the entire board than Carter and the Grizzlies, as the guard already possesses the bulldog mentality that Memphis hopes to rekindle after a disastrous 2023-24 campaign. Carter will defend from day one and make winning plays on the other end, even if the 38% he shot from 3-point range last season at Providence turns out to be a bit of a mirage. At 22 years old, Carter will require minimal adjustment time, which is exactly what the Grizzlies are seeking.

Despite his alarmingly low 22% 3-point shooting with the Ignite last season, Buzelis has incredibly high upside as a stretch big who can also get out in transition and potentially serve as a secondary playmaker. He has the length and mobility to be a quality defender as he adds strength, but it’s going to take some time. The Jazz seem like the right situation for him to eventually flourish.

The Bulls clearly aren’t going to compete for titles as currently constructed, so they might as well look to the future at No. 11 with one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft. Salaun won’t turn 19 until August and will require plenty of development time, but what might emerge is an archetypal modern NBA forward, capable of shooting 3s off of spot-ups and movement, with the length and athleticism to finish at the rim. He’s not a shot-blocker, but he’s great at reading passing lanes for pick-6 opportunities.

He doesn’t exactly fit with OKC’s draft history of length and versatility, but it will be hard to pass up on Dillingham if he’s still around at No. 12. The dynamic guard has Darius Garland/Tyrese Maxey upside if his playmaking continues to evolve, and his ability to shoot 3s off the dribble will be a deadly weapon. The only real question is whether his 164-pound frame will be able to survive NBA physicality, but the Thunder will happily collect the asset and see how it plays out.

Not only is McCain an elite shooting prospect, but he also happens to be a Sacramento native. He should fit in perfectly as a movement shooter capable of running off of all those picks and dribble hand-offs from Domantas Sabonis, and McCain can capably serve as a secondary ball-handler when necessary. He’s also a deadly pull-up 3-point marksman, a good piece for a team that wants to play fast.

The Blazers need to hit home runs, not singles, and Collier is a high-upside swing as a power guard who was once considered the best player in his draft class. With a strong frame and relentless offensive motor, Collier gets into the lane at will, where he’s adept at drawing fouls and getting to the line. The turnover issues and defensive lapses need to be cleaned up, but there’s a nonzero chance that Collier is the best player in the draft when all’s said and done. Definitely worth a shot for Portland here.

It’s still hard for me to understand why Ware isn’t much higher on most draft boards, as a shot-blocking, rim-running center with a 7-5 wingspan who also happened to shoot 43% from 3-point range last season — albeit on limited attempts. The Heat need a reliable backup for Bam Adebayo, and Ware seems like the perfect guy to grow into that role as Erik Spoelstra can simplify his game and play to the 20-year-old’s strengths.

The Sixers are in win-now mode during Joel Embiid’s prime, and Da Silva is one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft with the size, frame and skill set to contribute immediately. He’s a great cutter who finishes creatively around the basket to make up for his lack of explosiveness, and he profiles as an average to above-average 3-point shooter. Defensively, his basketball IQ is constantly on display and he can guard multiple positions. Da Silva could easily step into a Philadelphia frontcourt rotation that lacks depth.

If the Lakers keep this pick, it’s with a post-LeBron world in mind, so taking a chance on a high-upside development case makes sense for them at No. 17. They could do a lot worse than Holland, who could become an elite shot creator and switchable defender with some work. He’ll only be 18 years old on draft night, making him intriguingly projectable.

I had George going to the Magic in my last mock, and I still love the fit for an organization obsessed with size, length and versatility. George can playmake at multiple positions, and he was a knock-down shooter in his one season at Miami, particularly off the catch. He could serve as a floor-spacer in Orlando while he develops his creation skills — which I find incredibly intriguing.

Walter’s destiny is a 3-and-D guard/wing, but that will require him to make significant strides in both areas, and the rebuilding Raptors will give him plenty of opportunity to grow. His strength is shooting off the catch, particularly running off screens, which is a hot commodity in today’s league. Walter’s 6-10 wingspan suggests he should be an elite defender one day, while the development of his playmaking will determine the height of his ceiling.

Furphy’s theoretical ceiling is nearly perfect for the Cavs as a 3-point shooter who can also get out and finish in transition. He’s also shown signs of being a solid defensive playmaker with steals and blocks, and he’ll have to contribute on that end if he’s going to stay on the court for the Cavs. Most likely he’ll spend most of his rookie year developing, and the benefits could be robust down the line.

The Pelicans desperately need some scoring punch off the bench, and Carrington (better known as Bub) profiles as a heat-check bucket-getter with a deadly pull-up jumper who can also be a secondary playmaker — think Bones Hyland or Lou Williams, but bigger. He also doesn’t turn 19 until this summer, so he likely has plenty of room to develop, with 3-point shooting the most immediate area to address.

Holmes may not still be available at No. 22, but if he is then the Suns would be wise to bring him into the fold. The guy just knows how to play basketball and he’ll be 22 by the time his rookie season starts, so he should be able to immediately slot into a Phoenix rotation that desperately needs low-cost, impact players. He plays much bigger than his 6-foot-9 frame, as a smart roller and finisher who can also pop out to 3-point range, making him the perfect player to put next to all of the Suns’ top-end scoring and playmaking.

The questions about Edey’s NBA fit are valid, but there’s no better player for him to learn from than Brook Lopez — and it doesn’t hurt that Milwaukee is a hop, skip and a jump from Purdue. In order to succeed, Edey will need to master the art of drop defense, which the Bucks have played for years with Lopez — a similarly slow-footed 7-plus-footer. Edey should block shots immediately, but the danger comes when he’s out in space against NBA-level speed and shot-making. His offensive role is a bit murky, though he should be able to get a few touches here and there in the post, where he dominated in college.

Some might not see Dunn as a first-rounder due to his complete lack of offensive production in college, but he’s the type of game-changing defender who can immediately carve out an NBA role. The prototype for his development would be Herb Jones, who walked into the league as an excellent defender and has since developed into a 42% 3-point shooter. That might not be in the cards for Dunn, but even if he’s more like Matisse Thybulle, he should be able to earn minutes for the defensive-minded Tom Thibodeau.

The Knicks are clearly ready to contend in the East, so Tyson — a physical, NBA-ready prospect at 21 years old — makes a lot of sense for them here. He’ll benefit from a simplified role at the next level, where he’s not relied upon for as much creation as he was at Cal. If everything clicks, he can be an excellent bench scorer with defensive upside, but he’ll need to work on his efficiency. The key will be his 3-point shot, which profiles to be at least league average from the wing.

Smith has moments where he looks like a lottery pick, and it’s hard to get them out of your head when evaluating him. A stretch-big with a solid lefty stroke, he’ll benefit from the patience of a Wizards franchise that knows contention is years away. Theoretically, he could be a solid defender with his 7-1 wingspan, but he’s yet to show it consistently. Washington will need to develop him, and the talent is worth the investment.

If there’s one thing the Wolves learned during their conference finals run, it’s that they need a little more offensive punch. Scheierman should be able to provide that right away, as a 23-year-old, sharpshooting wing capable of working off of screens and attacking closeouts. He also has some crafty finishing ability around the rim and playmaking upside, but his defensive progress will determine his playing time for Minnesota.

I’m not as high on Filipowski as most, but I think he’s an excellent fit for Denver’s system. Nikola Jokic he is certainly not, but Filipowski can be a playmaker from the center position and is mobile enough defensively to hold his own. The Nuggets need a full-time backup for Jokic, and Filipowski can become that with time and effort.

Another draft pick, another development project for the Jazz. Klintman is as intriguing as any prospect in the class, but has yet to put it together at either the college or international level. Utah has plenty of patience, and will take a chance on a stretch-forward who can get out in transition and could eventually become a plus defender.

Missi’s talent is much more impressive than the typical last pick of the first round, but he could fall to Boston if things shake out this way. He’d fit well there, as a rim-running, shot-blocking big who can fill the hole left when Robert Williams III was traded to Portland in the Jrue Holiday deal. The champions don’t need much help, but Missi is the type of player who could earn minutes right away and add even more roster versatility to an already devastating rotation.