Week 25 | June 21 – 23, 2024
Top 10 Range | Weekend 25, 2024: $108M—$138M
Top 10 Total | Weekend 25, 2023: $109,146,756
Boxoffice Pro Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | June 21 – 23, 2024
1. Inside Out 2
Disney/Pixar | Week 2
Weekend Range: $75 – $85M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 35%
Pros
- Pixar’s Inside Out 2 shattered the 2024 box office ceiling last weekend with a $155M domestic and nearly $300M global take, quieting the doomsayers while breathing new life into the summer movie season. Theaters were still feeling the afterglow on Monday as grosses for the film totaled out to $22.4M—only a few million shy of the $26.3M earlier summer release Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga debuted to over its three-day Memorial Day weekend debut. That Monday figure for Inside Out 2 is the second-best ever for a Pixar film, behind only Incredibles 2 ($23.6M). If Inside Out 2 continues to remain roughly on par with Incredibles 2, we’re looking at a second-weekend take of $80.3M (a -56% drop), on the high end of our predicted range. However, in its second weekend Incredibles 2 was going toe-to-toe with the debut of Universal’s behemoth Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($148M opening). There is no significant new competition for Inside Out 2 this weekend, which means nine figures—or close to it—isn’t out of the question if the animated film continues to overperform.
- International holdovers should also be quite robust considering opening weekend figures—like the $14.3M Inside Out 2 made in the UK/Ireland, making up 71% of the entire box office for that market, the biggest opening there since Barbie. With the momentum it’s enjoying, the Pixar sequel should handily cross the half-billion mark globally before the weekend is out. Between June 19-21 we’ll see openings in other major markets, including France, Italy, and Spain (June 19); Brazil (June 20); and the brass ring of China (June 21). Japan, the second-biggest territory for the first Inside Out with $32.8M (UK was #1 with $59.4M), won’t get the film until August 1.
Cons
- The downside is hidden in the upside: No new major title is launching this weekend. Great news for Disney, not so much for theaters or—for that matter—moviegoers who already caught Inside Out 2 last weekend and are looking for the next big thing. Neither The Bikeriders, Kinds of Kindness, nor The Exorcism are likely to pull a significant audience despite big-name pedigrees. That leftover audience is more likely to trickle down to stalwart titles like Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, entering its seventh weekend. The 20th Century Studios/Disney release landed in the #3 spot at the box office last weekend with $5.5M, a +2% uptick from the previous weekend despite losing 555 screens… again, more good news for Disney.
2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Sony Pictures | Week 3
Weekend Range: $12 – $18M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 13%
Pros
- Bad Boys: Ride or Die should continue to hold strong, especially with Will Smith still out there doing promo stunts like showing up at a random Cinemark screening for the benefit of TikTok-ers (via Deadline). Sony is already feeling the good-Will from their star, as he’s signed up for his next big sci-fi tentpole, Resistor, with the Tom Rothman-led studio. The Bad Boys fourquel only dropped 40% last weekend with no change in locations and took in another $3,352,350 million on Monday for a current domestic cume of $116,358,327M.
Cons
How will Bad Boys: Ride or Die pace with the rest of the franchise? Here’s what the respective third frames looked like on the previous three flicks…
- Bad Boys (1995) – $7,012,808 million (-36% 3rd frame drop)
- Bad Boys II (2003) – $12,734,526 million (-42% 3rd frame drop)
- Bad Boys For Life (2020) – $17,682,959 million (-48% 3rd frame drop)
Unlike Inside Out 2, the Bad Boys have some rival bad boys to contend with in The Bikeriders, which is aimed at the same male-centric demo.
3. THE BIKERIDERS
Focus Features | NEW
Weekend Range: $7 – $12M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 8%
Pros
- Specialty exhibitors previously singled out 1960s-set motorcycle gang crime drama The Bikeriders as one of the year’s most promising potential general audience crossover titles during our annual State of the Art-House panel. Rotten Tomatoes critical currently stands at a rock-solid 85%, with many praising the cast—including the formidable Tom Hardy, Free Guy‘s Jodie Comer, and Dune: Part Two “it boy” Austin Butler. A mid-summer release for an art house title is a rarity these days, with specialty studios mostly parking their buzziest titles in January or February, to coincide with awards season. But a well-reviewed/star-studded drama brimming with action, speed, and violence could be just the kind of adult-geared movie for a summer slot barren of significant competition.
Cons
- While trailers cut to Rolling Stones tunes promote a Scorese-lite tone for this motorcycle gang epic, director Jeff Nichols is known for artier fare like Mud or Loving. It doesn’t help that the film feels a little stale after premiering at the Telluride Film Festival last August, with 20th Century Studios delaying the intended December release… then ultimately handing it off to Universal’s boutique division, Focus Features. 2024 has not been a banner year for Focus, with none of their major releases (Lisa Frankenstein, Drive-Away Dolls, The American Society of Magical Negroes, Back to Black) cracking $10M domestically despite wide rollouts. As a summer contender, Focus’ latest will have a hard time jockeying for screens in the weeks to come. It could take tremendous word-of-mouth to keep a straightforward period drama like The Bikeriders afloat, even in the specialty market. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 will likely ride roughshod over Bikeriders in the latter film’s second frame.
- While the initial biker movie craze died off not long after Easy Rider, modern examples like Torque or Cymbeline haven’t exactly lit the world on fire. A better comp for The Bikeriders would be 2012’s Lawless, which also paired Tom Hardy in a period crime movie with a hot young male co-star (Shia LaBeouf) and up-and-coming female lead (Jessica Chastain). That film ultimately earned $37.3M domestic and $54.3M globally, a middling performance.
#Weekend #Preview #Remain #BIKERIDERS #Pursuit,
#Weekend #Preview #Remain #BIKERIDERS #Pursuit