Tropical Storm Beryl formed Friday evening in the Atlantic east of the Windward Islands and could become Hurricane Beryl by Sunday as it moves westward, the National Hurricane Center said.
It becomes the second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, formally turning into a tropical storm about 1,100 miles southeast of the Windward Islands at the eastern end of the Caribbean.
Beryl was moving at about 18 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, the hurricane center said in an 11 p.m. advisory. The official forecast calls for it to be a hurricane by Sunday afternoon.
The storm is expected to cross over the Windward Islands late Sunday and into Monday morning, bringing a risk of heavy rain, hurricane force winds and dangerous storm surge and waves. Hurricane and tropical storm watches “will likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands” on Saturday, the Center stated.
Barbados and nearby islands could receive 3-6 inches of rain, with localized flooding in vulnerable areas, as well as life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Hurricane hunter aircraft are scheduled to be dispatched to investigate the storm on Sunday.
What’s the forecast for Beryl?
Elsewhere, interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the storm’s progress, keeping in mind that the margin of error for the forecast at four or five days out can be quite large, the center advised.
By Sunday evening, when Beryl moves into the Caribbean Sea, the official forecast states its winds could be up to 105 mph. Atmospheric conditions are typically not favorable for strengthening storms at this point in June, however, some of the computer models are “quite aggressive,” and suggest the storm could be a major hurricane before it reaches the Windwards, according to the center’s forecast discussion.
Once the storm crosses into the Caribbean, the forecast models aren’t yet in agreement on the storm’s potential path, the center said. For now, the official forecast cone shows the center of the hurricane could be near or over the western half of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Tuesday evening and over Jamaica or eastern Cuba on Wednesday evening.
How unusual is a storm like Beryl?
The hurricane center said only a few storms in history have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.
If it becomes a hurricane by Sunday afternoon, it would be the farthest east a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic, breaking a record set in 1933, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University, and lead author of its seasonal hurricane outlook.
While tropical cyclone activity before August 1 has little correlation with the overall activity in a season, early season activity east of the Lesser Antilles is generally associated with very busy seasons, Klotzbach posted on X.
The new storm comes a week after Tropical Storm Alberto pummeled northeastern Mexico, triggering major floods and killing at least four people, including three children. The storm also drenched the Gulf Coast of Texas and left Surfside Beach, a coastal city south of Houston, under several feet of water.
Hurricane tracker: Updates on the path of every storm
System moving toward Gulf of Mexico, tropical wave in the Atlantic
Closer to the U.S. is a low pressure system in the northwestern Caribbean that’s forecast to move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. As it emerges into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, conditions are likely to be favorable for further development, the hurricane center said Friday night. The center lists the chances of further development over the next 48 hours at 40%.
Regardless of development, the system is forecast to spread rain and gusty winds across portions of Central America and Mexico through the weekend.
In the Atlantic, a tropical wave centered several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is forming showers and thunderstorms. The system could potentially develop next week as it heads west at 15 to 20 mph. That system has a 40% chance of additional development over the next seven days.
More:List of 2024 Atlantic hurricane season storm names starts with Alberto and Beryl
Experts predict a busy hurricane season
Beryl is the latest storm to emerge in what’s expected to be above average for tropical storms and hurricanes.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted between 17-25 named storms forming this Atlantic hurricane season – the most storms NOAA has forecast in its preseason outlook. Eight to 18 of the storms are forecast to develop into hurricanes, with four to seven being major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher), according to NOAA.
“All the ingredients are in place for an active season,” said National Weather Service Director Ken Graham at a news conference in May. NOAA Director Rick Spinrad said the Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be “extraordinary,” with an 85% chance for an above-average year.
The record for most named storms in a season is 30, set in 2020. A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, seven of which spin into hurricanes, based on weather records spanning from 1991 to 2020.
Contributing: Doyle Rice, Gabe Hauari, USA TODAY; Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network-Florida
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