Hurricane Beryl Nearing Damaging Strike On Jamaica

Hurricane Beryl is nearing a potentially devastating strike on Jamaica and will then go on to hammer the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula before facing an uncertain future in the Gulf of Mexico that could include impacts in eastern Mexico and Texas.

Current status: Beryl’s eyewall continues to move quickly west-northwest in the northern Caribbean Sea at Category 4 intensity well south of Hispaniola. That said, some bands of heavy rain have wrapped into the Dominican Republic and Haiti, which could result in flooding and mudslides.

(​MORE: Beryl Was Earliest Category 5 On Record)

Here’s where warnings and watches are in effect: A​ hurricane warning has been issued for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

A​ hurricane watch has been issued for the eastern coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. To the south, a tropical storm watch has been issued as far south as Belize City in Belize.

A​reas under hurricane warnings should rush preparations to completion. Areas under hurricane watches should make sure their hurricane plans are ready to go.

Here’s what to expect next from Beryl across the Caribbean: Beryl will take a west-northwest track in the Caribbean Sea through the rest of this week. Although the hurricane will eventually lose intensity because of increasingly hostile wind shear, it will still pose a considerable danger. Here’s the general timeline

• Wednesday: Beryl is expected to strike Jamaica with potentially devastating winds and life-threatening storm surge flooding that could reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels where winds blow onshore on the coast. Torrential rainfall is likely to trigger flash flooding and landslides in Jamaica and Haiti. This could be the strongest hurricane to strike Jamaica in almost 17 years, since Hurricane Dean in 2007.
• T​hursday: Beryl is forecast to make its closest approach as a hurricane to the Cayman Islands, particularly Grand Cayman, with storm surge flooding, high winds and heavy rain.
• F​riday: Beryl is expected to make a landfall as a hurricane in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, anywhere from the Belize border and Costa Maya to Cancún. Storm surge flooding, potentially damaging winds and flooding rain are all possible.

(​MORE: What The Forecast Cone Means, And Doesn’t)

U.S. concern: Beryl is likely to emerge in the southwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend after being steered by a heat dome of high pressure over the Southeast U.S.

T​here is considerable uncertainty in Beryl’s future after that.

T​hat Southeast U.S. upper-level heat dome is expected to both weaken and retreat off the Southeast coast, leaving a gap between that and a western U.S. heat dome.

Because of that, some computer forecast models are suggesting Beryl could eventually curl more toward the northwest or north in the western Gulf of Mexico. That opens the door to a track anywhere from eastern Mexico’s Gulf Coast to Texas early next week.

Beryl should have lost strength by the time it reaches the southwest Gulf because of wind shear and land interaction, however it could still bring significant impacts to the Gulf Coast as either a tropical storm or hurricane. Some restrengthening is possible.

C​oastal threats could begin this weekend: Well ahead of Beryl, onshore winds could lead to increasing surf, rip currents and coastal flooding along parts of the Gulf Coast from eastern Mexico to Texas and western Louisiana beginning as soon as Saturday, and continuing until Beryl’s final landfall. The rip current threat could even extend farther east along the northern Gulf Coast, as well.

K​eep this in mind if you have holiday weekend beach plans along these stretches of the coastline.

J​ust a couple of weeks ago, Tropical Storm Alberto triggered significant coastal flooding along the Texas coast.

Recap Of Beryl’s Historic Windward Islands Landfall

Beryl made landfall just after 11 a.m. EDT Monday over the Grenadan island of Carriacou with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Among only two other Category 4 hurricanes in history near Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Beryl was the strongest by wind speed.

(​MORE: All The Ways Beryl Has Already Made History)

Storm reports: S​torm chasers Brandon Clement and Jonathan Petramala reported the roof ripped off of a building they were reporting from on Carriacou Island late Monday morning as the eyewall moved in. The National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. EDT Monday advisory cited “multiple reports of downed trees, flooded streets, power outages and storm surge flooding in the Grenadines, Grenada, Barbados and Tobago.”

After briefly weakening to a Category 3 overnight following an eyewall replacement cycle, the hurricane once again returned to Category 4 strength Monday morning.

I​ts wind field grew larger since Sunday, with hurricane-force winds now extending out up to 40 miles from Beryl’s center.

While its eyewall passed south of Barbados, a 69 mph gust was clocked early Monday at Grantley Adams International Airport, the island’s major airport. Grenada clocked a wind gust up to 121 mph as the center of Beryl tracked just north of the island. A gust to 64 mph was reported on St. Lucia, as well.

B​eryl has strengthened since that strike on Carriacou Island.

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