Even if Beryl’s center doesn’t make landfall, onshore winds along Jamaica’s south coast could drive serious storm surge of 6 to 9 feet. Hurricane warnings are in effect there and in the Cayman Islands, where Beryl could hit Wednesday night into Thursday.
Jamaica ordered evacuations as the storm closed in, and Prime Minister Andrew Holness urged residents in those areas to head to shelters before conditions deteriorate.
“We urge all Jamaicans to comply with notices to evacuate,” he said. Even outside those warned areas, he said, “if you live in a low-lying area, an area historically prone to flooding and landslides, or if you live on the banks of a river or a gully, I implore you to evacuate to a shelter or safer ground.”
The hurricane continues to move west after making landfall Monday on Grenada’s Carriacou Island. Officials were beginning to assess the extent of the destruction, especially on smaller and hard-hit islands. Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said Tuesday that at least three people were killed by the hurricane, which caused “almost complete destruction” of homes and buildings. In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves also reported severe damage and at least one death.
At a separate news conference in Florida on Tuesday, Caribbean officials said Grenada’s islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique were particularly hard-hit by the storm, with electricity down, roofs ripped off and debris everywhere. Carriacou was “pretty much devastated,” said Dianne Perrotte, Grenada’s deputy consul general in Miami. The islands were looking for donations of mattresses, sleeping bags, food and other supplies as the airports slowly reopened for aid flights, she said.
In Barbados, hundreds of people went to shelters, and at least dozens of houses were significantly impacted, said Rudy Grant, consul general of Barbados in Miami. Many businesses were hit in the fishing town of Oistins, a tourist destination, he said, and the port in the capital, Bridgetown, was closed until debris was cleared out.
Assessments of the damage would be continuing over the coming days.
“The impact of climate change and these weather events — they are getting more and more frequent and the consequences that much graver,” said Darrel Montrope, St. Lucia’s consul general in Miami. He said he anticipated ongoing aid needs in the Caribbean throughout the coming hurricane season.
Meanwhile, hurricane watches have been issued along the east coast of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche. Beryl could hit the area as a Category 1 or 2 storm into Friday before emerging over the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
From there, forecasts are more uncertain, with numerous possibilities for Beryl’s future track. Outcomes ranging from a weak tropical storm landfall in Veracruz or Tamaulipas in Mexico to a major hurricane reaching Texas are on the table. For now, it’s a game of waiting, watching and staying vigilant.
As of 11 a.m. Wednesday, the center of Beryl was located 125 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Maximum sustained winds in the eyewall were estimated at 145 mph, making Beryl a solid Category 4 hurricane.
If we look “under the hood” using microwave satellite imagery, we can see the southern eyewall is open. That said, the northern eyewall, which is more likely to skim along the southern edge of Jamaica, will contain winds gusting 100 to 130 mph. It will be a nail biter, since hurricane-force winds extend outward 45 miles from the center. Moreover, winds will begin out of the southeast. That will likely push water against the coast, leading to a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet.
Inland heavy rains, meanwhile, could trigger flash flooding and mudslides, which could sever routes into rural inland communities in the higher terrain. A few double-digit rain totals are possible.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is only just beginning, and already Beryl has claimed a number of records in what has been a display of historical significance. The storm became the earliest-forming Category 5 on record in the Atlantic, beating out Hurricane Emily, which reached Category 5 strength on July 17, 2005.
Beryl was also the farthest-south Category 4 storm on record when it intensified over the weekend, and the most quickly strengthening storm observed in the Atlantic anytime before September; it lurched from a tropical depression to a Category 4 in just 48 hours.
While favorable meteorological conditions — like weak upper-level winds, the presence of a tropical wave and divergence, or spreading of air aloft — all combined to create the storm, its intensity is to some extent linked to our changing climate.
Water temperatures, which are running 3 or 4 degrees above average, are more reminiscent of early September than late June or early July. That has fueled Beryl’s exceptional intensity and breakneck strengthening, and fits into a well-researched pattern of more intense and more rapidly intensifying hurricanes.
Where Beryl is headed next
Beryl will continue drifting west over the coming days, likely bound for the Yucatán Peninsula. An impact somewhere south of Cancún is likely Thursday night into Friday. By then, Beryl will probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.
Beryl will be battling increasing shear in the next 36 hours, which will work to quickly weaken the system. That will be counteracted by exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures, which will continue to invigorate the system. The net result will likely be only gradual weakening, and a still-formidable impact in Mexico.
Will Beryl reach the Gulf of Mexico or the United States?
By Friday afternoon, Beryl is expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche or the southwest Gulf of Mexico. That’s when forecast confidence drops off markedly.
If Beryl is a weak system, it will be inclined to continue heading west, probably making landfall over the weekend in Tamaulipas, Mexico. If Beryl remains stronger, however, which would be the result of a briefer interaction with the Yucatán, then it could take a more northerly track. That could take the storm over the western Gulf of Mexico.
If the latter scenario occurs, the storm could strengthen and perhaps rapidly intensify Saturday into Sunday, fueled by very warm sea surface temperatures, calm upper-level winds and high pressure aloft, which would result in spreading air that would vacuum surface air upward.
The threat of a landfall in Texas is a very real possibility, though Mexico remains favored at this point.
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