Reuters is reporting that US stock index futures climbed on Monday on the news that president Joe Biden was withdrawing from the election.
The news agency quotes Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics saying “Donald Trump is still the solid favorite to win the presidential election, but betting markets suggest he has a slightly lower probability of beating Harris rather than Biden.
“Harris will have a real chance to sell herself to the American public in the second presidential debate, currently scheduled for 10 September, although the Trump campaign could withdraw, not wanting to go toe-to-toe with the ex-attorney.”
Reuters states that investers are braced for high volatility this week, and notes that shares of Trump-linked stocks such as Trump Media & Technology Group and software firm Phunware were up.
Updated at 05.01 EDT
CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein has said he thinks the Democratic party is likely to pick Kamala Harris, as “it’s just hard to imagine there is the stomach for a full-fledged second fight to bypass her”.
He told the news network:
The Democratic party has just gone through a very traumatic episode of nudging aside a president who they respect, who they think has been more successful than many expected, but whom the vast majority of them had come to believe cannot win and did not feel comfortable about re-nominating him for four more years.
After going through all of that, it’s just hard to imagine there is the stomach for a full-fledged second fight to bypass her. Especially with the candidates who might have the best chance – like Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom – already indicating they won’t run against Harris.
My colleague Joan E Greve has this explainer of what happens next in the nomination process now that Joe Biden has stepped aside …
Updated at 04.21 EDT
German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock has said Joe Biden’s decision to step aside showed he was willing to put his country’s interests above his own, Reuters reports.
It quotes her saying “I have great respect for the US president’s decision. Biden has also done an incredible amount for transatlantic relations, and not just during his term as president.”
Updated at 03.48 EDT
Hugo Lowell reports for the Guardian on what the latest developments mean for the Donald Trump campaign
Donald Trump is scrambling to pivot his campaign against Kamala Harris, with attack ads hitting her current record in office and her past in California, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
The Trump campaign is viewing Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee, especially after Biden gave his endorsement, and started preparing opposition research dossiers against her in recent weeks. But as much as Biden’s withdrawal has left Democrats floundering ahead of its nominating convention next month, it has in many ways also flummoxed the Trump campaign.
Trump-aligned political action committees such as MAGA Inc will unleash a wave of attacks against Harris, including a $5m television ad in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona, casting her as the puppet master in the Biden administration.
The Trump campaign was always set up to defeat one person – Biden – and Trump’s allies in recent weeks even pulled punches to keep the president viable as a candidate because they were so keen to run against him.
The problem for the Trump campaign is that their best attack lines against Biden, on age and mental acuity, cannot be used and, if anything, they might be reprised by Democrats against Trump given he now will be the oldest candidate.
And the millions of dollars that the Trump-aligned Pacs spent creating attack ads against Biden, including one as recently as last week that was centered around Biden’s slip-up at the presidential debate last month about military deaths, have gone to waste.
Read more from Hugo Lowell here: Trump scrambles to pivot campaign to attack Kamala Harris
Updated at 03.18 EDT
Israel will be the strongest US ally in the Middle East regardless of who is elected president in November, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday.
Reuters reports that Netanyahu, speaking to reporters before flying to Washington, said that he would thank president Joe Biden for all he has done for Israel.
The Biden administration’s continued provision of resources for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has caused the president to lose some support on the left of his party.
Updated at 03.06 EDT
In today’s First Edition newsletter, my colleague Archie Bland sets out what happens now:
While Joe Biden won the Democratic primaries at a canter, his status as the party’s nominee had not yet been officially confirmed. As Joan E Greve sets out in this useful explainer, the delegates who are pledged to vote for Biden at the party’s convention next month will now be released from their obligation.
In theory, that could mean an open “floor fight” in which candidates vie for the delegates’ votes. The Democratic National Committee chair, Jaime Harrison, said yesterday that the process would be “transparent and orderly”. The DNC’s rules committee said last night that it would meet on Wednesday to settle on the process.
Kamala Harris has no automatic right to Biden’s delegates as his vice-president, but his endorsement plus the explicit support of many prominent figures in the party mean there is a very good chance she will run unopposed, or be a strong favourite even if someone stands against her.
In her favour is wariness among the Democratic establishment of a chaotic display to the public in an open battle at the convention – alongside worries that Black and female voters could turn away from the party if Harris were to be denied the nomination that some feel she has already earned.
Tat theory will only be tested if a serious rival emerges, which looks increasingly unlikely. One potential candidate, Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, quickly said yesterday that she would not stand; another governor, Gavin Newsom of California, has repeatedly said that he would not stand against Harris. Both endorsed her last night, along with more than 100 other elected Democrats.
Read more here: Monday briefing – Joe Biden passes the torch – and transforms the race for the presidency
Updated at 02.09 EDT
The Kremlin has responded to Biden stepping aside, saying “a lot can change” in the next four months.
“The elections are still four months away, and that is a long period of time in which a lot can change,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the SHOT news outlet.
“We need to be patient and carefully monitor what happens. The priority for us is the special military operation,” Peskov said, using the euphemism for the Ukraine war that President Vladimir Putin prefers.
Putin had said several times said that he felt Biden was preferable as the future US president to Trump for Russia, even after Biden cast the Kremlin chief as a “crazy SOB”.
Russian state television led news bulletins with the news of Biden leaving the election race and Biden’s support for Harris, though it said it was unclear if Harris would earn the Democratic nomination.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on the Telegram messaging app that he wished Biden good health and added that the goals of the special military operation would be achieved.
Updated at 02.41 EDT
If Kamala Harris becomes the nominee, then, as said in a 2020 Harris campaign ad shared widely after Biden resigned, Trump will be up against “The Anti-Trump”.
Here is a reminder of some of the ways they differ: A prosecutor versus a felon. The first Black person, the first person of South Asian descent, and the first female Vice President in US history, versus a white man. The oldest Presidential candidate in US history versus someone almost 20 years younger than him. The US property mogul who inherited a fortune from his father versus the daughter of a biologist and a university Professor in economics, both of whom are immigrants.
On that note, this is Helen Sullivan handing over to my colleague Martin Belam in London.
Updated at 01.58 EDT
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