Harris vs. Trump match-up after Biden drops out of the race : NPR

Vice President Harris descends from Air Force 2 in Milwaukee ahead of a campaign event on Tuesday.

Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images

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Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images

The 2024 presidential campaign has hit a reset with more voters moving into the undecided camp now that Kamala Harris is potentially the Democratic nominee, a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds.

Harris and former President Donald Trump are statistically tied, but 1 in 5 independents, including almost 3 in 10 independent women, now say they are undecided. So these next few weeks will be vital for Harris to reintroduce herself before views solidify.

The survey also found that Democrats are feeling better about their chances now, and Black voters, in particular, say they are more fired up to vote.

But both Harris and Trump have work to do with key voting groups, from younger and nonwhite voters for Trump; and independents, suburban and white voters overall for Harris.

As for Biden’s decision to step aside in the presidential race, Americans overwhelmingly agree with his choice, and two-thirds think he should serve out his term in office and not resign.

Harris and Trump are statistically tied

• In a head-to-head matchup, Trump gets 46%, while Harris is at 45%, with 9% undecided. In Marist’s survey earlier this month, just 2% were undecided between Trump and Biden. The poll of 1,309 adults was conducted Monday via online research panels. It has a +/- 3.2 percentage point margin of error, meaning results could be roughly 3 points higher or lower. 

• In a five-way contest, Trump and Harris each get 42%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulls in 7%, the lowest since Marist has been testing him since April, and independent Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein get just 1%.

• Notably, Harris holds onto Gen Z/Millennial voters and nonwhite voters more so than Biden was able to when the contest moves from a head-to-head with Trump to one with third-party choices. Earlier this month, Biden declined 13 points with those younger voters and 10 points with nonwhite voters. Harris, on the other hand, largely retains her support with those groups.

Significant numbers of various groups have now moved into the undecided category

With more folks undecided, there’s an opportunity for Harris that Biden did not seem to have. It’s another key indication of just how much of a restart this move is for the campaign.

Democrats overwhelmingly want Harris to be the nominee

• By a 77%-22% margin, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they want her to be the nominee.

• Black voters were the most likely of any subgroup to say they were more likely to vote now that Biden has stepped aside – 50% said so. Latinos (46%) and voters aged 18-29 (43%) were also among the most likely to say they are more likely to vote now.

Americans agree Biden made the right choice in not running for reelection, but most think he should finish out his presidency

• 87% said stepping aside was the right thing to do, including 87% of Democrats and Republicans, as well as 90% of independents.

• Two-thirds (68%) think Biden should finish out his term. Republicans are largely split, with 53% saying he should resign and 47% saying he should serve out his term.

A plurality said the decision puts Democrats in a better position to win

• By a 41%-24% margin, Americans said Biden’s decision increases Democrats’ chances this fall. A third said it makes no difference.

• Two-thirds of Democrats (65%) said it increases their chances. More independents also think so, 38%, vs. 21% who think it doesn’t. A plurality of Republicans (42%) think it won’t make a difference, and more of them believe it will hurt rather than help (36%-21%).

Harris starts with a net-negative favorability rating, but slightly better than Trump

Harris gets a 40%-44% positive-to-negative rating, while 15% either haven’t heard of her or were unsure. Trump gets a 43%-49% rating with 8% unsure.

• In the last Marist survey, Biden’s unfavorable rating was 7 points worse than Harris.

• Trump may be seeing a marginal convention bounce, as his unfavorability rating is 4 points lower than Marist’s survey taken before the convention. 

• Black voters have among the highest favorability ratings of Harris of any group – 61%. White evangelical Christians (73%) and men without college degrees (62%) give Trump among his highest ratings. Those numbers show which voters likely make up the strongest portions of each candidate’s base of support.

This is a critical period for Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, Trump’s VP pick, because lots of people haven’t formed an opinion of him yet

• Forty-one percent have either never heard of him or are unsure. Just 28% have a favorable opinion, while 31% have a negative one.

There’s no consensus about a vice-presidential pick, because they are largely unknown

• Twenty-one percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would like to see Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and another 21% favor Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as a VP pick. They’re followed by Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (17%), Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (13%), North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (8%), Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (7%), Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (6%) and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (6%).

Colored by partisanship, Biden’s presidential legacy is not seen as a positive one

• Half of those surveyed say Biden will be remembered as either below average or one of the worst presidents in history (31% said one of the worst, 19% said below average). A quarter said average, another quarter said above average or one of the best presidents.

• There are very different views by party, though, with 85% of Republicans and 57% of independents saying Biden would be seen as below average or one of the worst, while 55% of Democrats saying above average or one of the best.

• For context, when Trump left office, larger numbers – 60% – said he would go down as below average or one of the worst. In 2016, 40% of respondents said former President Barack Obama would be seen as one of the best or above average, compared to 31% who said below average or one of the worst.

Digging into the numbers, Harris has work to do among independents, suburban voters and white voters

• Harris only pulls in 32% of independents in a match-up against Trump, while Biden got 46% in Marist’s last survey. She only gets 40% of white voters, compared to Biden’s 47%; and only 42% of small city/suburban women, compared to 58% for Biden. 

• Trump now leads with suburban voters, 50%-42%, when Biden had led previously, 56%-42%.

• But Harris has an opportunity to convince these voters, as 1-in-5 independents (21%) are now undecided, compared to just 4% previously; 11% of small city/suburban women are also undecided, compared to 2% in the last poll; as are of suburban voters, compared to 2% previously; and 7% of white voters, only 2% of whom said so earlier this month.

Trump, though, sees declines with younger voters, nonwhites and those without degrees

• Trump drops by 9 points with those under 35 and voters without college degrees. He also falls 8 points with nonwhite voters and parents with children under 18.