MLB trade deadline countdown is on. Plus, the Braves’ ailing infield and a James Paxton explainer

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The trade deadline is a week away! Ken weighs in on Tarik Skubal’s situation in Detroit, the Braves try to replace Ozzie Albies and Fabian Ardaya joins me to talk about the Dodgers rotation. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!

Trade Deadline: The countdown is on

While the July 30 deadline’s obvious buyers and sellers have been easy to identify for weeks now, a few other teams’ situations have come into more crisp resolution in the last week or two.

Trending toward buying: The Astros — last night’s 4-0 loss in Oakland notwithstanding — have surged from a horrible start to first place (by mere fractions of percentage points). They’ll be in the market for starting pitching, and perhaps a first baseman.

The Royals are now in the third wild-card spot, and could stand to upgrade their bullpen. The Pirates’ rotation has them within a half-game of a playoff spot; now they just need some bats. The Mets (a half-game ahead of Pittsburgh) need relievers, and the Diamondbacks (half-game behind) need pitching.

Trending toward selling: It’s just about time to pull the plug on the Rays (10.5 games back in the AL East), who will likely deal some bullpen arms (or maybe lean into it and deal some bats like Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena). The 48-53 Reds had a glimmer of hope going into the All-Star break, but were swept in D.C. Last night’s win felt too late to turn the tide.

I still can’t figure them out: I had the Rangers in the previous paragraph before last night. But with a win (and losses by the Astros and Mariners), they’re just four games out in the AL West. The Giants (4-6 in their last 10) and Cubs (6-4) are each 3 1/2 games back in the wild-card race. Neither seems poised to fully sell, but they also don’t feel like legit postseason contenders either.

More deadline reading:

• Our staff has bold predictions for all 30 teams.
• In today’s deadline roundup, we look at a few intriguing trade candidates in each of four categories: starter, reliever, right-handed bat and left-handed bat.

Ken’s Corner: What should the Tigers do with Skubal?

From my latest column:

We all want a blockbuster. But eye-popping, jaw-dropping blockbusters are increasingly rare. By now, fans should be familiar with the catchphrases team officials use as excuses, heaven forbid they trade their Precious Prospects™ and do something big:

Clubs want to protect their “years of control.” Don’t want to “mortgage the future.” Prefer to build a “sustainable contender.”

For those reasons and others — let’s not forget, “I want to keep my job” — many team executives, almost by default, are risk-averse.

Padres GM A.J. Preller is an exception. So is his northwest spirit animal, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto. Most other buyers proceed with extreme caution. And some sellers, quite reasonably, would rather keep their top players than simply churn talent, year after year.

Here is a look at the decision the Tigers are facing around Tarik Skubal, and a recommendation on whether he should stay or go:

In a trade market short on aces, Skubal, 27, is a logical target for teams urgently seeking rotation help. The Orioles and Dodgers fit that description. So do the Guardians, Astros and Padres. A number of other clubs, including the Red Sox, Cardinals and Braves, are looking, too.

The Tigers, then, figure to field calls on Skubal, simply acting out of due diligence. But after seven straight losing seasons, they’re finally showing life. They’ve won 11 of their last 14 games. Young hitters such as second baseman Colt Keith and designated hitter Justyn-Henry Malloy are maturing. And now they’re going to trade a pitcher who is a leading Cy Young contender and under club control at projected below-market salaries for two more seasons?

The only reason to do it would be the obvious reason — a fear of Skubal getting hurt. That’s a fair concern with seemingly every pitcher on the planet breaking down, and Skubal’s health history isn’t exactly pristine. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017 and flexor tendon surgery in August 2022 that sidelined him for nearly a year. So, the idea of trading him for top position-player prospects is not outrageous. Still.

The Tigers aren’t getting six years of Jackson Holliday for two-plus of Skubal. They are not a woe-is-me, low-revenue outfit, not when they carried top-five payrolls under the late Mike Ilitch from 2012 to ‘17. And, after opening the season with the 25th-ranked payroll, they should be ready to spend again soon.

Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, so a contract extension is unlikely. No matter. The Tigers play in the improving but still relatively weak AL Central. With Skubal, they stand a chance of returning to the postseason before he becomes a free agent. Without him, they would remain on the same hamster wheel they’ve been riding for nearly a decade.

Stay or go? Stay.

For my take on five more players, read the full column.

More Tigers: How Jake Rogers became the heartbeat of the surging Tigers

Injury Bug: Braves’ ailing infield

The 54-45 Braves have had a rough go of it, injury-wise. Spencer Strider made two starts before succumbing to the Curse of Tommy John. Ronald Acuña Jr. tore his other ACL in May. Ozzie Albies has a fractured hand, and we don’t know yet how long Max Fried’s forearm will keep him on the shelf.

But this is a new and cruel development. Whit Merrifield — released by the Phillies earlier this month — officially signed with the Braves on Monday. Welcome to the ballpark, Whit. Would you like to take some grounders before the game?

[minutes later]

You might not believe it, but it’s true: Whit Merrifield took a ball off a finger of his throwing hand while taking grounders an hour ago, is being evaluated now to make sure there’s no damage.

As Snitker said, managing to smile, “Can’t make it up….This year is something else.”

— David O’Brien (@DOBrienATL) July 22, 2024

O’Brien posted an update later, saying that there was no fracture, and Merrifield is day-to-day. But come on. For now, to replace Albies, the Braves are going to lean on rookie Nacho Alvarez, who has played primarily shortstop in the minor leagues (with a little third base mixed in). Alvarez played second base in high school, and told O’Brien he feels comfortable there. He went 0-for-4 in his big-league debut last night against the Reds, but the 21-year-old has hit .293/.401/.417 (.818 OPS) across two levels — including a .336 average and 1.007 OPS in 28 games at Triple-A Gwinnett.

Beat Writer Q&A: Why’d the Dodgers DFA James Paxton?

On Sunday, James Paxton logged the first win by a Dodgers starter in 25 days. On Monday, he was designated for assignment. Dodgers beat writer Fabian Ardaya was kind enough to join us to answer some questions about the move.

With the rotation as a stated trade deadline priority, why’d the Dodgers give Paxton the boot now?

Fabian: The Dodgers are certainly going to target starting pitching, and there’s a reason why they’ve been connected to players like Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet during this deadline season. While Paxton has certainly helped L.A. get to this point — he’s one of just two starters (Gavin Stone) the Dodgers have who have made every turn through the rotation this season — it was hard to envision a scenario where he would pitch for the team in October unless something went really wrong.

Granted, they have had a lot go wrong, and until recently had the most pitchers on the injured list of any team, but felt this timing made sense. They expect Paxton to have a trade market, and designating him for assignment now basically served as the equivalent of trying to move him on July 30 while also giving them the flexibility to bring up River Ryan, who tossed 5 1/3 strong innings in his MLB debut last night.

With Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw returning from the IL this week, what’s the state of the Dodgers rotation right now?

Fabian: Still not whole. Tyler Glasnow’s absence was a short one, as expected, but the Dodgers still have to see where Clayton Kershaw is at in his return. They’re understandably bullish on how he feels and how his stuff has looked, but this is still a guy coming off the first major arm surgery of his storied career. The Dodgers still have Bobby Miller down in Triple A trying to sort himself out. Walker Buehler went off-site to work through his own issues and get healthy after struggling in his initial return from a second Tommy John surgery.

Then there’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers’ $325 million man is still planning to return this season, but what will he look like when he comes back from a shoulder issue? And can he be a guy the Dodgers count on in October? That’s something the Dodgers won’t be able to figure out before the deadline, but will certainly weigh on whatever decisions they make.

For more on the move, and the Dodgers’ rotation, Fabian also has a full story here.

Handshakes and High Fives

This week’s Power Rankings handed the reins over to our readers. Let’s see how you ranked them, as our writers give a second-half outlook for each team.

Jim Bowden makes the case for sellers to go ahead and deal their star pitchers to maximize returns.

Eno Sarris has your second-half starting pitcher rankings.

Most-clicked in yesterday’s newsletter: The man, the myth, the legend: Nick Castellanos and his impeccable timing.

Most-read MLB story on the site today: Ken’s deep-dive on the dynamic between Shohei Ohtani, his former interpreter Ippei Mizuhara and agent Nez Balelo.

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(Photo: Raymond Carlin III / USA Today)