Playing Gaslit Poker

I'm simply looking for the truth. I don't want to believe one thing today but be handed something else in the end. I would expect that anyone who is routinely here wishes, hopes for and expects the same.

In My last post, I pointed to CytoDyn's preparedness for the upcoming results of the MASH murine studies and what those results could do for CytoDyn, the company – but have we considered what those results might do for the other combined party of interest?

Here, we have stood the test of time, behind the company, through thick and thin for years already. I have poured my thinking literally through pages and pages of analysis and have done my due diligence. Everything I've looked at has led me to continue to believe in the company, that its primary, number one mission is to the drug, such that it eventually be approved and secondarily to the shareholders who have proved to be the backbone, who have stood strong and stalwart when it was far easier to simply collapse in utter disbelief.

Shareholder's of CYDY can expect to be showered with news this coming fall. Oh yeah, it is going to be an eventful Autumn. Please see Multifrontal Offensive to see what can be expected. I did not elaborate much on MASH in that linked post, so I would like to do so here. The MASH murine study is slated to complete by September 19, 2024. Then the data needs to be compiled and analyzed. So, like the press release says, "Results Expected Fall 2024". Here is where the mice are at the time of this writing.

Through every looking glass, angular prism and perspective viewpoint which I have gazed at this, it seems to me that the results should prove favorable to CytoDyn showing clearly that with the addition of leronlimab, any Thyroid Hormone Receptor Beta Agonist might very well gain the ability to treat far more than only MASH levels of NAS 0-3. I expect to see results that prove that a year's treatment of the combination drug also reduces steatosis and fibrosis significantly also from livers in the NAS 4-8 category range as well. Additionally, I do expect the results to show that with a year's treatment, the combo drug reduces fibrosis in livers with a Fibrosis score of 3 or 4 to a Fibrosis score of 1 or 0 and reduces Cirrhosis to a Fibrosis score of 3 or 2. In essence, I expect the results to show that with the year-long addition of leronlimab to a Thyroid Hormone Receptor Beta Agonist, a combination treatment method may be applied successfully across the entire gamut of MASH and Fibrosis and not only towards a tiny fraction (NAS of 3 or less) of the overall, entire MASH indication spectrum.

As we all know, leronlimab is an extremely versatile drug. It is the 180-degree polar opposite of a one-trick pony. Leronlimab is multimodal while a Thyroid Hormone Receptor Beta Agonist is unimodal and does only one thing. It replicates T3 thyroid hormone. That makes it a one-trick pony in my book. Now the companies behind such one-trick ponies, need to be astute and wise because they need to be able to depend on themselves because they cannot depend so much on their drug. In one particular instance, the company I'm thinking about was able to get their drug approved, even though it hardly slid by the FDA regulators because they are simply good at what they do. Well run, despite having minimal to work with. Sleek they are and smart like a fox.

So soon, CytoDyn has the results of the MASH murine study and if these results prove that leronlimab significantly augments the capacity of the Thyroid Hormone Receptor Beta Agonist across the entire spectrum of the MASH indication which is worth over $50 billion US annual revenue, then that would cause significant interest and chatter among all the smart companies who own these T3 mimetic molecules. However, it is not possible at all really, for any combination product to go forward with Phase 3 trials of any sort without first insuring to the FDA that there are no drug-drug interactions. You cannot simply combine two drugs and take that combination to Phase 3 clinical trials without proving that the combination is safe.

The FDA would not permit the progression of a MASH Phase 3 trial directly from a murine study, no matter how good the results. No, the FDA would need to ensure that there are no drug-drug interactions between the two drugs. For example: Leronlimab + a Thyroid Hormone Receptor Beta Agonist in a Phase 2b / 3a study of say 100 – 200 patients. Once the FDA knows that there are no drug-drug interactions, then they would permit proceeding onto a Pivotal Phase 3 trial of 400 – 600 patients designed for FDA approval. The FDA would not permit jumping from a murine study directly to a Pivotal Phase 3 trial. Only after proving that no drug-drug interactions exist can the combination drug proceed to Phase 3 clinical trial.

But how would these Phase 2b / 3a and a Pivotal Phase 3 trials get funded? If the MASH murine study results are that conclusive and that convincing, the company owning the Thyroid Hormone Receptor Beta Agonist can either

1. License for leronlimab
   1. For either a one-time fee or a staged-fee (based on milestones) and then subsequent quarterly royalty payments (mainly to pay the costs of manufacturing), which begin once the product is approved, Licensing allows the Buying Company of the License the rights to use leronlimab indefinitely towards whatever indications are written into the Licensing contract which likely shall only be for the entirety of MASH.
2. Partner with CytoDyn
   1. Partnership is very much like licensing requiring an upfront payment and then subsequent payments based on milestones but in exchange for some help that CytoDyn would share in and provide towards the endeavor. There would not be a royalty, but rather a fractional split of the profit for the parties involved. I do not see any real help that CytoDyn can provide or offer to the Partnering Company, aside from manufacturing, but this involvement can also be captured using Licensing, so I would count out Partnership.
3. Acquire CytoDyn
   1. Acquisition is a complete buyout of CytoDyn for an agreed upon figure. A buyout proposal needs to be for a reasonable sum and low-ball offers should not be proposed nor entertained in the slightest. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of such low-ball offers given CytoDyn's depressed financial status and the Buyer's unwillingness or inability to pay a higher price. CytoDyn is vulnerable to being stolen away, because in the event of such an offer, the residing "C" Class might just be fooled into accepting such a deal. With that said, let's hypothetically say that a low-ball offer of $1 billion is made for CytoDyn. In order for this offer to go through, Mitch Cohen, Dr. Lalezari, Cyrus Arman, and the BoD would all need to believe that the cheapest they would sell CytoDyn for is for $1 billion and they must also be willing to do so!! I for one certainly do not believe that any of them actually believe that non-sense, nor do I believe that any of them are willing to do so. So, I don't see a low-ball offer like this hypothetical being made, but fair offers are always fair game.
      1. I used $1 billion as an example of a low-ball offer because it is far too low, ridiculously low for the potential found here in CytoDyn. Considering only MSS mCRC, clinical trial success and success in the Inflammation/Immune Activation clinical trials raises CytoDyn to a value of over $15-20 billion alone. The only buyers at this level are the top 10-15 Big Pharma Companies and none of them have that much cash, but investment banks would help finance a deal like this or stock swaps as well.

So, given now that the only two options realistically available to the company who owns the Thyroid Hormone Receptor Beta Agonist, is to either License or Acquire and given that some of the potential purchasing companies have as their maximum purchasing power only about $1 billion, and if such a company does offer to Acquire CytoDyn for $1 billion, my recommendation to Mitch Cohen, Jacob Lalezari, MD, Cyrus Arman and the BoD would be to rather accept a lower one-time Licensing fee or a Staging of the Licensing fee based on Milestones of Success such as 1) Nonrefundable down payment, 2) Success in Phase 2b / 3a as basis for second payment 3) Success in Pivotal Phase 3 with BLA and approval as basis for third and final payment, then possibly reduced or delayed Royalty payments for indefinite manufacturing purposes. This would allow CytoDyn to completely License off MASH to this Buying company at a lower one-time price or at a reasonably staged payment plan based on met milestones which would still enable CytoDyn to take even that reduced flow of money and move on with MSS mCRC and Inflammation/Immune Activation and to forget about MASH once and for all. Yes, it would be better to take a lower one-time licensing fee or a staged licensing fee along with even a reduced royalty if the only buyout offer on the table completely under cuts the true value of CytoDyn by billions of dollars. Let them License leronlimab at half rate even, handing them over the entirety of the MASH indication spectrum, but also allowing CytoDyn to move on in oncology and Inflammation/Immune Activation.

However, if a buyout offer is never entertained or brought up, then please stick to a higher $200-250 million one-time License fee for MASH or divide it up based on met milestones, if necessary, in an example as follows: It can be set up so that it can be cancelled if milestones are not met. Let's use a non-refundable $50 million as initial payment. That gets it through the Phase 2b / 3a trial and if that is successful, they pay another $50 million. The Pivotal Phase 3 trial is last and if successful leading to FDA approval, they pay the final $100 million as well as the $4 million FDA charge for the BLA. Lastly royalties are paid upon manufacturing indefinitely. That is an example of a fair deal in exchange for a drug that offers the Buyer $50 billion annually in US sales, but a few factors go into the dollar valuing of this Licensing fee, but the Buying company shall try to chew this number down as much as they are able. Some factors include:

1. Stock Price
2. The number of Real Potential Indications
3. Associated Market Size of the Real Potential Indications
4. How many competitors are currently playing those Potential Indications right now
5. How many Big Pharmas are interested in CytoDyn right now. (CytoDyn might have a lot of leverage here)
6. How much cash does a company have to wait for a better offer. (CytoDyn has little leverage here)
7. How much cash is required to run the rest of the trials necessary to eventually win FDA approval. (The Buying company is going to shove that down CytoDyn's throat and that is in their leverage)

To the company who actually tries to undercut CytoDyn. What if instead of an appropriate Licensing offer, an offer is made to buyout CytoDyn for only a small sum, where the Buyer tries to make it seem that CytoDyn is not worth all that much. In such a case, here again is my advice to CytoDyn executives. Immediately switch off the buyout discussion and turn it towards a License deal and settle for a lower-than-expected bid or let them know about the other players in the room. Let me explain.

They might try to prove the point that CytoDyn is in dire straits. Tons of debt, minimal cash, no trials, nothing approved, no staff, nothing to offer. So, they gaslight like crazy. Step it up. Let them see the value of the indications. How much is MSS worth? How much is Inflammation worth? How much is MSS mCRC worth? mTNBC worth? GBM worth? Alzheimers? How much is HIV-PreP worth, -CURE worth? LATCH worth? A cure for HIV??? Do not allow them to make fools of you.

They need to understand exactly what they are getting for their fair offer. Maybe, they should learn of the higher offers also on the table. Remind them that they are not the only ones in the room, or at the table. Point out, that they are not the only ones with a Thyroid Hormone Receptor Beta Agonist who are aware of the results of the MASH murine study. Ask them if they really want to become part of a bidding war. Remind them, of CytoDyn's priority and near fetish with MASH over the course of the past few years. Remind them that MASH has been on CytoDyn's list of priorities ever since the 12/7/22 R&D Update. That it was 1 of the 3 most important priorities. Yes, insist that CytoDyn is prepared to License 1/3 (MASH) of its main priorities for the right price and that is the direction to pursue. Let them know, there won't be any bidding wars if the right price is agreed upon. Counsel them that all that can be avoided if the right price or the right terms are offered.

With the results that are coming, low-ball offers only serve to bring everybody in to sit at the table. Listen up. Yes, with the coming results, MASH is up for grabs, if you make it that way. Are you really sure you want to divide it into pieces? Who really cares? CytoDyn just wants a fair slice, and that is with a fair Licensing contract. With a fair contract, CytoDyn uses that to take on the other 2/3 goals of the R&D Update, oncology and the HIV indication in patient populations that are laden with Inflammation/Immune Activation. CytoDyn wants to pursue these 2/3 goals, and it does that by Licensing off MASH and only a fair contract enables that to happen. Yet a fair contract shall be had because there are many who want the entire MASH indication spectrum. You are not the only stud in town you know.

All are aware of CytoDyn's current financial position. All are also aware of leronlimab's massive bandwidth and dichotomy to their one-trick ponies. All are aware of CytoDyn's on deck plans for MSS mCRC clinical trial and the Inflammation/Immune Activation clinical trial. All are pleased that CytoDyn has not yet affiliated itself with any major Big Pharma Players. After all, its MSS mCRC clinical trial is slated to be combined with generics, approved drugs which are now off patent and All are aware that the Inflammation/Immune Activation trial is only a Phase 2 clinical trial slated to be combined with SOC in HIV as that is the targeted population in that trial. All are keenly aware of all the other goals on CytoDyn's checklist and All do see those goals as an asset for CytoDyn.

However, All are also aware of the recent massive CYDY shareholder warrant conversion where hundreds of millions of warrants were converted to shares at $0.09 and may want to exploit this. They are All also aware that a buyout of only $1 would profit shareholders who participated in the CYDY warrant conversion could 11x their money at a sale price of $1/share. So, they might feel justified in such an offer because, especially since share price hasn't really risen all that much in recent run ups. So, $1 per share would be 11x over that warrant conversion and 6x over current share price and they would use that as their argument to push the offer through, to purchase CYDY for $1 billion.

So, lets qualify it. Would a company who only has $1 billion in cash be willing to spend it all in order to Acquire CytoDyn if the murine MASH results were very compelling? Would CytoDyn even accept such an offer? Recall, there are other (un-approved) Thyroid Hormone Receptor Beta Agonists owned by various companies and weight loss drugs who see and appreciate the results of the MASH murine study and understand how leronlimab can help them achieve their statistical significance in this huge indication. If you're playing your cards right, there does not have to be any bidding war.

But if there was no regard for a bidding war, then, for fun, let's consider what a hypothetical offer made to Acquire CytoDyn for only $1 billion would look like to our own portfolio. How would it look like? The same as any other buyout offer, but with lower numbers. If the hypothetical Buyer only has $1 billion in cash, certainly, they would not use it all. More likely though, something like a split of cash and stock offer would be made. Something like a 50% cash / 50% stock deal. Here is how I explained it to u/Missy2021.

• If a company has $1 billion to their name, then the most they can offer is $1 billion for CYDY.
• They would not give all their cash up to make the purchase. Let's say they offer $500 million in cash and $500 million in their company stock.
• $500 million is roughly $0.50 / share CYDY, so you would get that for every share CYDY you own.
• $500 million is roughly $0.50 / share CYDY, so that would equate to $0.50 x # shares you own in CYDY Stock divided by that company's share price, and that number of that company's stock is placed into your account.
• How would that affect you as a shareholder of CYDY? Example: Say you own 100,000 shares CYDY.
• You would lose your CYDY shares from your account and receive $50k
• Let's say that company's share price trades at about $200/share
• You would receive shares of that company into your account equal to $50,000 / $200 = 250 shares of that company's stock
• Your 100,000 CYDY shares would translate to $50k and 250 shares of that company's stock and that company would now own CytoDyn.

For a low-ball buyout offer, this is the fruit of which they very well might try to force feed us and which they may request for us to eat from. First off, if they like what the MASH murine study shows, they may make an attempt to low-ball CytoDyn because of what they already know about CytoDyn. But such a low-ball buyout offer is about the best they can do at the moment, if that is all they are worth themselves, unless they continue to raise money for such purposes. Instead, what they should do is work out a License deal.

CytoDyn is prepared to License off MASH at the right price or terms. It is ready and willing to do so. My advice: Don't try to steal the entire company by exchanging what you have in cash for the entirety of CytoDyn. You know you shall lose if you attempt that because you would be out-bid. You're low-ball bid starts a bidding war. You're not the only trick in town, remember? Play the game right and you'll win. Remember, if you want all of MASH, you need CytoDyn, it is not the other way around.

Thanks for hearing this and I'm sorry if you did not need to hear this, but I needed it off my chest. Now that MASH is Licensed off, CytoDyn may really run with MSS mCRC and Inflammation/Immune Activation. The more and more it looks like MASH is to be Licensed off, the more and more willing JL feels ready and willing to begin using some of that $16 million he recently was awarded from Amarex towards these two trials in MSS mCRC and Inflammation/Immune Activation. As MASH passes off out of CytoDyn's hands and completely into the hands of the Buyer, CytoDyn cuts its ties to MASH. Its only interest with respect to MASH is for manufacturing the product for royalty purposes. Partnership would not allow such freedom away from the indication.

If you're looking for help from CytoDyn in MASH, you should look again. CytoDyn can't help too much here, so it would be a losing road to pursue. License leronlimab and do it yourself. With only $1 billion to your name, if you try to buyout, you will lose, because you shall be out-bid. Yes, the results are that good and you're not the only T3 mimetic in town. You're not the only drug in the MASH space. Weight loss wants in big-time. I'm protecting your interests. If you want to win MASH, you'll do the right thing and License. If you want to take a stab at buying out, you'll lose MASH. With Licensing, CytoDyn is out of your hair, and CytoDyn does their own thing. You would virtually own leronlimab in MASH alone, but isn't that why you're here anyway? What, you value MSS mCRC as gratis?

As CytoDyn takes that Licensing fee, it begins to develop these indications thereby increasing its value in oncology and HIV, but not in MASH. CytoDyn shall not compete with its Licensee in MASH. MASH is yours entirely and MSS is CytoDyn's. HIV-Prep and HIV-CURE belong to CytoDyn. You wouldn't know what to do with those if they walked right up to you and kissed you on your face. Let's call an Ace an Ace and a Spade a Spade. I'm not gaslighting anyone. Therefore, make sure you don't gaslight anyone either. You'll be so much better for it for simply heeding this message.

You really don't want the myriad of all the indications that are attached to CytoDyn through leronlimab. If you had them, you'd be a laughingstock. You don't need those headaches. Bite off what you can chew, and everyone goes home happy. Swallow the entire thing whole and you'll vomit up your lunch, because it gets stuck in your throat because your bite was bigger than what you can muster. Don't be a laughingstock. One bite at a time… you know, baby steps.

With leronlimab, you've already won. Don't blow it before the game even gets played. Stay in your lane and everyone is happy. Crossing into someone else's lane is bad behavior. There ain't no second chances to get it right the first time. Be ready because the time soon arrives when you need to decide what to do. I'm already ready. I see it already happening. I just don't know how you behave, how you decide. You need to control your lusting eyes and be satisfied for your needs alone, and not more than your needs alone, otherwise everything is lost through your fumbling hands.