Tony Predictions: Expect Wins for ‘Merrily’ and ‘Stereophonic’

Everyone loves a comeback story. And this year, Broadway will be celebrating one for the ages.

“Merrily We Roll Along,” a Stephen Sondheim show that has long been one of musical theater’s most storied flops, will cement its long-sought redemption on Sunday by winning the Tony Award for best musical revival, according to my annual survey of Tony voters.

This week I have connected, by phone or by email, with just over a quarter of the 836 Tony voters, and asked how they were voting. In a season in which lots of new musicals have admirers but none seem to have fully satisfied industry insiders, that race is tight, as are some of the key acting categories.

But “Merrily,” more than any show since “Hamilton,” has won over not only the ticket-buying audience, which has made this production a significant hit, but also the group of producers, investors, writers, actors, designers and others whose work or volunteer lives are so theater-involved that they have qualified as Tony voters.

The survey is not a scientific poll; some voters haven’t even cast their ballots yet. For the actual winners (and some song and dance, too), tune in Sunday for the awards show, which starts at 8 p.m. Eastern on CBS and Paramount+ with Showtime. A preshow with some of the awards will stream on Pluto TV starting at 6:30 p.m. Eastern, and we’ll be live-blogging all evening at nytimes.com/theater.

Until then, here’s a look at what those surveyed are indicating.

Best musical: ‘The Outsiders’ could upset ‘Hell’s Kitchen.’

“Hell’s Kitchen,” the Alicia Keys musical, is doing quite well: good reviews, lots of media attention and the strongest sales of any of the season’s new musicals.

But it is in a tough race for the coveted best musical Tony Award, where its primary competitor is a stage adaptation of “The Outsiders,” which is ahead among those I surveyed, although not by an insurmountable margin.

Both shows have strengths and weaknesses. Many in the industry are loving the vocal performances and the choreography in “Hell’s Kitchen,” but are less enamored with the storytelling. “The Outsiders,” based on the classic young adult novel about warring teenagers in Oklahoma, is getting lots of love for its vivid violence and gritty physical production, but less for its score. The spotlight on Keys seems to be a double-edged sword, helping to draw attention to “Hell’s Kitchen,” but also making “The Outsiders” seem like an underdog.

Best play: ‘Stereophonic,’ a drama with songs.

“Stereophonic,” David Adjmi’s behind-the-music drama about the making of an album by the feuding members of a five-person band, scored some of the best reviews of the season and seems certain to pick up the Tony Award for best play.

The show, which features original songs by Will Butler, is favored by just over half the voters I surveyed; the other votes were dispersed among the other four nominees — “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding,” “Prayer for the French Republic,” “Mother Play” and “Mary Jane” — making it virtually impossible for any of them to surpass it.

“Stereophonic,” set in California in the 1970s, is the most-nominated play in history, with 13 nods, including for Butler, the director Daniel Aukin, and five members of the play’s cast. Watch for the possibility that this play could win more Tony Awards than any musical on Sunday night.

Best musical revival: The race that really isn’t a race.

The current production of “Merrily We Roll Along” is such a sensation that it’s hard to remember that wasn’t always the case. When the show first debuted on Broadway, in 1981, it was a debacle — bad reviews, mystified audiences, and a closing just 12 days after the opening.

No more. The current production, which opened last October and is scheduled to close on July 7, has been consistently sold out, with a high average ticket price, and is one of the few shows from the 2023-24 season to become profitable. In March the production announced that it had recouped its $12 million capitalization cost, and the producers have filed investment papers indicating that they are raising money for a possible filming of the show.

The revival, directed by Maria Friedman, has benefited enormously from the presence in the cast of Daniel Radcliffe, a box-office draw thanks to the “Harry Potter” movies. Also significant: A spike in interest in musicals by Sondheim following his death. Sondheim wrote the show’s music and lyrics, while the book is by George Furth.

There’s no contest in this category: Of those surveyed, three quarters are voting for “Merrily,” which is as close to unanimous as these things get. And the revival’s star, Jonathan Groff, should finally be able to add “Tony winner” to his résumé — he has a 3-to-1 lead over his closest competitor, Brian d’Arcy James of “Days of Wine and Roses,” in the best actor in a musical category, and seems sure to take home the trophy. (The survey covers only leading performers, so we’ll have to wait until Sunday to see whether Radcliffe and the show’s other nominated performer, Lindsay Mendez, win too.)

Best play revival: ‘Appropriate,’ a family-secrets drama.

Branden Jacobs-Jenkins has long been hailed as one of the most talented playwrights of his generation, and though it took a troublingly long time for a play he wrote to make it to Broadway, this one has proved to be a crowd-pleaser.

The play, “Appropriate,” is a surprise-packed drama about three adult siblings who reunite after their father’s death and confront their family’s unsettling past. It was staged Off Broadway in 2014, and, in a decision that many voters said they don’t agree with, the Tony Awards Administration Committee deemed the Broadway production to be a revival, because the play has had several productions elsewhere over the past decade.

Nearly half the voters I surveyed said they are going with “Appropriate” as best play revival. The balance is split between “Purlie Victorious” and “An Enemy of the People,” making it difficult for either of them to overtake “Appropriate.”

“Appropriate,” set in Arkansas in 2011, stars Sarah Paulson as the eldest of the reuniting siblings, and her ferocious performance will win Paulson her first Tony Award: She has more than twice as much support as her nearest competitor, Jessica Lange of “Mother Play.”

Two of the lead acting categories are tight.

The competition for best leading actress in a musical is the tightest I can remember seeing: It’s a three-way race between Kelli O’Hara of “Days of Wine and Roses,” Maleah Joi Moon of “Hell’s Kitchen” and Maryann Plunkett of “The Notebook,” and any of them could take home the trophy.

Among the contenders for best leading actor in a play, Jeremy Strong of “An Enemy of the People” appears to be ahead, but could be overtaken by Michael Stuhlbarg of “Patriots” or Leslie Odom Jr. of “Purlie Victorious.”