BREAKING NEWS: FOMC Edition
Premarket Outlook and Technical Analysis for Day Trading the Markets
September 18, 2024
As the markets prepare for the highly anticipated FOMC meeting, price action is sending strong signals about the potential direction of the day’s trading. In this exclusive report, we’ll break down the key takeaways from the premarket and provide a technical analysis of the major indices.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the FOMC announcement, indicating a cautiously optimistic tone among traders. The Nasdaq futures are also showing signs of strength, with a slight upward bias. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones futures are trading relatively flat, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s decision.
Technical Analysis
S&P 500 (ES)
- Short-term support: 3,900
- Short-term resistance: 3,950
- Medium-term support: 3,850
- Medium-term resistance: 4,000
The S&P 500 is poised to break above its short-term resistance at 3,950, potentially leading to a move towards the medium-term resistance at 4,000. However, a strong FOMC announcement could send the index surging higher, while a disappointing outcome could lead to a decline towards the short-term support at 3,900.
Nasdaq (NQ)
- Short-term support: 12,800
- Short-term resistance: 13,000
- Medium-term support: 12,600
- Medium-term resistance: 13,200
The Nasdaq is showing signs of strength, with a breakout above its short-term resistance at 13,000. This could lead to a move towards the medium-term resistance at 13,200. However, a strong FOMC announcement could send the index soaring higher, while a disappointing outcome could lead to a decline towards the short-term support at 12,800.
Dow Jones (YM)
- Short-term support: 32,800
- Short-term resistance: 33,200
- Medium-term support: 32,400
- Medium-term resistance: 33,600
The Dow Jones is trading relatively flat ahead of the FOMC announcement, with a slight upward bias. A strong FOMC announcement could send the index surging higher, potentially breaking above its short-term resistance at 33,200. However, a disappointing outcome could lead to a decline towards the short-term support at 32,800.
Key Levels to Watch
- 3,900 (S&P 500): Short-term support
- 3,950 (S&P 500): Short-term resistance
- 4,000 (S&P 500): Medium-term resistance
- 12,800 (Nasdaq): Short-term support
- 13,000 (Nasdaq): Short-term resistance
- 13,200 (Nasdaq): Medium-term resistance
- 32,800 (Dow Jones): Short-term support
- 33,200 (Dow Jones): Short-term resistance
- 33,600 (Dow Jones): Medium-term resistance
FOMC Announcement
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest monetary policy decision at 2:00 PM ET. Traders will be closely watching the announcement for any changes to interest rates, quantitative easing, or forward guidance. A strong FOMC announcement could send the markets soaring higher, while a disappointing outcome could lead to a decline.
Conclusion
As the markets prepare for the FOMC announcement, price action is indicating a cautiously optimistic tone. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are poised to break above their short-term resistance, while the Dow Jones is trading relatively flat. Traders should be prepared for volatility and be cautious of any unexpected twists. Stay tuned for further updates and analysis as the day unfolds.
SECTIONS
- Market Overview
- Technical Analysis
- Key Levels to Watch
- FOMC Announcement
- Conclusion
TAGS
- FOMC, Federal Reserve, interest rates, quantitative easing, forward guidance, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, technical analysis, day trading, market outlook, premarket outlook, breaking news
CATEGORIES
- Market Analysis
- Technical Analysis
- FOMC
- Federal Reserve
- Interest Rates
- Quantitative Easing
- Forward Guidance
- Day Trading
- Market Outlook
- Premarket Outlook
Goodmorning trading world, today is a big day, and all week price action has been saying so. Monday, we closed right around where we started the week at, Tuesday, despite getting a big push up we still came back and closed near where we started the week. Both price action and implied volatility say we are not doing anything until the FOMC. At the beginning of the week the probabilities stood at 59% probability of a 25-basis point cut versus 41% probability of doing nothing. Today 5 hours and 45 minutes until the announcement we are at 65% probability of cutting 25 basis points versus 35% of doing nothing policy wise. At this point even if there is a rate cut, at some point the market will realize that the reason the Fed cut rates is because the government is no longer able to deny or hide the economic slowdown and stagflation that is here, and this is truly bad news for the market. Also, this is going to fit right in with the changing in momentum as we are likely to get a spike down to kind of keep us grounded a bit. I did a video mapping out the 2 scenarios for price action today be sure to check that out.
Today my target for the /ES is down to 5662-5650 and it that breaks 5625, Targets to the up side around 5732-5769.
/ES S/R Levels:
- Resistance:
- 5773 5783 – K
- 5759- Q
- 5750- J
- Critical Range: The pivotal range is 5690-5663, The more time spend above 5677 hints at continued consolidation mixed with pushes higher. The more time we spend below 5677. hints at rubber band over stretch and snap back or possible break down if day closes below 5663.
- Support:
- 5663 – J
- 5655 – Q
- 5641-5631 – K
- Potential Reversal: If we pop up the battleground is 5723-5750. 5737 is the demarcation line. If we stay below, we look forward to continued consolidation and further try to push higher. If we break above 5737, and close above 5750, it is possible for the rubber band effect to stretch really big in the next couple of days before snapping back.
- Chop Zone: 5700-5690
- Today's Reaction Areas: 5698, 5693, 5674, 5704, 5718 and 5751
- Remember: Your most important job as a trader is to protect the capital you already have. You do this by knowing and understanding the risk you face in each position and in the current market conditions. We manage that risk in accordance with our account size. I hope this helps, wishing you a positive trading day, let’s make it a great one.
View info-news.info by jmj_daytrader
I’m looking at ĆME website and I see either .25 cut (39%) or .50 cut (65%). I don’t see the nothing option for today?