Wimbledon final analysis: Carlos Alcaraz beats Novak Djokovic for second Wimbledon title

Follow live coverage of the 2024 Wimbledon men’s final and mixed doubles final here

WIMBLEDON — Carlos Alcaraz beat Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon final at the All England Club 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 on Sunday.

The No 3 seed prevailed over the No 2 seed in a one-sided victory, ultimately decided by Djokovic’s hampered movement after knee surgery, Alcaraz’s massively improved serve and his psychological edge over Djokovic in net exchanges.

It is Alcaraz’s second Wimbledon title and his fourth Grand Slam singles title. He becomes only the sixth men’s player to complete the French Open and Wimbledon double in the same year, after Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Bjorn Borg, and Rod Laver. He completed the ‘Surface Slam‘, winning on grass, clay and hard courts, by beating Alexander Zverev in the French Open final at Roland Garros in June.

It was Djokovic’s first straight-sets defeat at Wimbledon since the 2013 final, when he lost to Andy Murray.

The Athletic’s writers, Charlie Eccleshare and Matt Futterman, analyze the final and what it means for tennis.

How much can a first game mean?

Notes from the first game of a final match.

It lasted 12 minutes. There were seven deuces. Djokovic seemed like he had to hit 50 serves. A sound emanated from his lungs after each one, more moan or groan than intimidating grunt. It was too hard, too early.

At the seven-minute mark, Alcaraz unleashed his first outrageous shot of the day, a scorching forehand down the line, with Djokovic rushing the net. Djokovic didn’t even bother turning his head. Long ago, Alcaraz said when he can land his forehand down the line early, he knows he’s feeling his game. Everyone in the locker room knows to beware of this — Djokovic most of all.

Winning a lengthy game on Djokovic’s serve was the perfect message for Alcaraz to send (Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Back and forth they go. Djokovic digs in to find a big serve or two to save a break point, then gives himself an advantage point — but he can’t convert.

Another deuce. Another serve down the middle, and Alcaraz rolls a backhand crosscourt on a second serve return that almost stings as much as the forehand from before. It’s just a little early for a game this intense, and for shots like this. As Djokovic sets up to serve, his chest rises and falls with each breath.

He earns a reprieve, but on the next point, he’s coming forward, trying to catch up to a dipping backhand volley before the ball drops below the top of the net. He’s half a step slow. The ball hits the mesh.

More pressure. Another break-point chance. A big serve sets up an easy forehand into the open court, especially for a player who has won 24 Grand Slam titles. A big breath.

Contact.

It sails wide.

It’s 1-0 Alcaraz, and it really shouldn’t matter, because first games don’t matter in five-set tennis matches, and with Djokovic, first sets barely matter either. But this game feels like it does, not just because it was hard — really hard — but because it was so much harder than so many of his first games in his 36 other Grand Slam finals. That number, ridiculous as it seems, is not wrong.

It was a fitting start to a very hard afternoon.

Matt Futterman

The art of playing an injured player?

One of tennis’ most difficult psychological tests is playing a match against an ailing opponent. That’s any match, against any ailing opponent — let alone a Wimbledon final against a 24-time Grand Slam champion.

Just a few games in, it was clear that Djokovic was far from full fitness — hardly a surprise just over five weeks after meniscus surgery. While a half-fit Djokovic can still take care of most of the field on grass, Alcaraz is not most of the field.

GO DEEPER

‘I didn’t know if I could play’ – Why Wimbledon’s biggest subplot is injuries

Djokovic also played his hand early, frequently rushing to the net in the opening few games. It was partly tactical, an attempt to take advantage of his excellent spot serving, but it also suggested that he didn’t fully trust his ability to win a baseline match against Alcaraz. An advantage for the Spaniard? In theory. But, as much as Alcaraz brings freewheeling spontaneity and shotmaking, tennis is a sport of plans and reverting from those patterns is much trickier than it looks — but Alcaraz took full advantage of an opponent whose movement is compromised.

Djokovic was too slow for most of the match (John Walton/PA Images via Getty Images)

Alcaraz ultimately gave an exhibition on how to cope with an opponent not at 100 per cent.

He didn’t massively change his approach, or start indiscriminately chucking in drop shots. He played attacking, percentage tennis, taking advantage of the holes in Djokovic’s game created by his knee. When Djokovic was at the net, he hit a passing shot that was good enough, not painting the lines. He dipped the ball low onto Djokovic’s shoelaces, often with a slice out of the backhand corner, asking him to try and get low and dig volleys up, or hold his wrist steady enough to chip the ball over the net just above the tape. Again and again, Djokovic missed.

Alcaraz’s defence against Djokovic’s net rushing was so good that the Serbian’s proportion of points won at the net dropped by 21 percentage points compared to his tournament average.

At one point in the second set, Alcaraz hit an inside-out forehand into the corner with so much shape that it was almost a lob, with so little speed that it teased Djokovic as it gently puttered past. Naturally, there were some spectacular shots in all of this — including four in a game at 4-4 in the third for a crucial break — but predominantly, this was a performance of controlled aggression. It demonstrated the exceptional maturity of this 21-year-old.

Charlie Eccleshare

Did Djokovic need Alex de Minaur more than anything?

So much had to go right for Djokovic to even get a chance to play Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final 39 days after undergoing surgery on the meniscus in his right knee.

Ultimately, it might have gone too right.

Doctors had to be able to fix the tear by excising it rather than repairing it. It meant Djokovic could move seamlessly through his rehabilitation, progressing every day from walking and hopping to running to shifting direction without any swelling, pain or inflammation.

GO DEEPER

Inside Novak Djokovic’s recovery – accepting outsiders, hyperbaric chambers, Jelena’s worries

Then he had to play himself back into shape, first with practice sets against Frances Tiafoe and Daniil Medvedev and then, if he could get lucky, against some soft early-round opponents.

He got lucky, not just by drawing a qualifier and a wild card in the first two rounds, but by seeing Alcaraz land on the other side of the draw along with world No 1 Jannik Sinner.

Then he had to play Australian Alexei Popyrin, who had little Centre Court experience, and a formless Holger Rune.

His next opponent posed what appeared to be a formidable test — Alex de Minaur, another Aussie, a lover of grass and, most importantly, a top-10 player with the wheels and the engine to run all day. De Minaur was even showing some newly acquired power, to hang with Djokovic when he revs through the gears.

But De Minaur tore his hip cartilage in the final three points of his fourth-round win over Arthur Fils.

He pulled out, leaving Djokovic with more rest and world No 25 Lorenzo Musetti to beat in the semifinal. Djokovic had a plan for Musetti and executed it ruthlessly, taking just three sets to dispatch the Italian.

Then came Alcaraz, a player everyone in the game describes as five steps up in toughness. “Against Carlos, it’s a different intensity,” Alexander Zverev said after Alcaraz had driven him to cramps in the French Open final. It was different on Sunday for Djokovic too. By the time he had raised his level to where it needed to be to hang with Alcaraz, Djokovic was down two sets.

So much different. Too different. Everything had gone right — when he just needed a little on-court adversity to be ready for this ultimate test.

Djokovic’s lack of match practice against a top-25 opponent showed on Centre Court (Henry Nicholls/AFP via Getty Images)

Matt Futterman

How did Alcaraz meet the moment with his serve?

It was fitting that Alcaraz served out this match in a tiebreak because the game in which he botched serving for the match was a complete aberration in an otherwise masterful serving performance.

Alcaraz came into this match with a first-serve-points won percentage of 72 for the Championships, the 68th-best in the men’s event. Serving had been a real issue, having been broken multiple times in his six matches before the final.

On Sunday, he produced his best serving performance of the tournament, maximising the risk-reward ratio on his first-serve. He made fewer than his tournament average, but significantly increased his percentage of points won behind them.

Alcaraz was just a point away from registering only the third completed Grand Slam tournament match in which Djokovic could not break his opponent’s serve, and giving up just a single break to such a devastating returner underlined the serving rhythm he found. When he was under pressure at other times, such as in the sixth game of the third set and facing break point, he came up with a couple of unreturnable first serves to steady himself and ultimately dig out the hold.

Alcaraz kept his speeds high, but crucially he kept hitting his spots too, and was brave with his second serves.

There was one second serve at the start of the third set to get him out of a tight game that landed plum on the line and completely bamboozled Djokovic. On many occasions this tournament, it had felt like Alcaraz had done everything well apart from the relatively prosaic act of serving. In Sunday’s final, Wimbledon got a glimpse of how irresistible he is when this area of his game clicks.

Alcaraz saved his best serving performance for the final (John Walton/PA Images via Getty Images)

Charlie Eccleshare

How one game encapsulated Alcaraz’s position far ahead of the rest

After two routings in two sets, Djokovic had made the third set competitive with a couple of comfortable holds, enjoying the scoreboard pressure of moving one game clear of Alcaraz every time he held serve.

At 4-4, the set looked finely poised.

Then Carlos Alcaraz went supernova.

Djokovic dragged him wide with an angled forehand; Alcaraz took it on the rise and lashed it into Djokovic’s backhand corner.

0-15.

Djokovic coughed up a short ball in the ad-court. Alcaraz ran around it and spun it towards his shins. Long.

0-30.

Djokovic came in behind his serve and guided a volley that would have bounced around the baseline. Alcaraz hit a drive forehand volley passing shot out of Djokovic’s despairing reach.

0-40.

Djokovic served and volleyed again, clean putaway.

15-40.

Djokovic moved Alcaraz laterally and came in on the Spaniard’s backhand. He caressed the passing shot cross-court.

Game. 5-4. Serving for the title. And there was nothing Djokovic could have done. Alcaraz’s serving performance was a massive improvement on the rest of Wimbledon, but his return quality gives him a perennial edge in a men’s field where, really, pretty much everyone has a pretty big serve. Max Purcell, No 68 in singles, and Jordan Thompson, No 39, were regularly serving over 130mph in their men’s doubles final on Saturday. Alcaraz handles it with quality, consistently, and that lets him unleash everything else in his game.

What did Carlos Alcaraz say after the final?

On court:

“When I was 11 or 12 years old, I said my dream was to win Wimbledon, so I’m repaying my dream. Obviously it’s a great feeling to play on this beautiful court and lift this massive trophy,” he said.

“It seemed so far away, Djokovic is an unbelievable fighter. I knew he would have chances again, so I tried to stay there. It was difficult for me, I tried to stay calm and stay positive going into the tiebreak.

“I tried to play my best tennis, that’s all I was thinking about. I’m glad I was able to find solutions. I’m really happy to be in this situation and obviously play a great tiebreak.”

Asked about the Euro 2024 final, in which Spain play England, he said, “I don’t know where but I will watch it for sure.

“I’ve already done my job, so let’s see the football! It’s going to be a really difficult match.”

In his press conference:

On the weight of history

“I honestly try not to think about it too much. Obviously it’s a really great start of my career, but I have to keep going. I have to keep building my path.

“At the end of my career, I want to sit at the same table as the big guys. That’s my main goal. That’s my dream right now. It doesn’t matter if I already won four Grand Slams at the age of 21. If I don’t keep going, all these tournaments for me… It doesn’t matter.”

On maturing as a tennis player

“I learnt a lot from that match against Daniil (Medvedev) in the US Open in 2023. Yeah, I had to be better. I had to grow up and be more mature in that situation.

“I gave up a little bit. I remember perfectly. I gave up a little bit in the second set after losing the first one. It’s something that is unacceptable playing in a Grand Slam. I knew that these things can’t happen again.”

On watching the Euro 2024 final:

“Yeah, I will watch it for sure at the phone the first half. The second half I will watch on the TV over there. I can’t miss it.

“So it’s going to be a really big moment for the Spanish people. I have to just stay there. As they were watching my final, I have to watch their final and support them.”

What did Novak Djokovic say after the final?

On court:

“He was definitely very hot today! Yes, obviously not the result I wanted, especially in the first couple of sets, my level of tennis wasn’t up to par.

“From the back of the court, serve, he had it all today. I tried to push him, save the three match points, and extended the match a little bit, but it wasn’t meant to be, really.”

When asked about his path to the final after surgery, he said, “I have to be very proud. Obviously there’s a bit of disappointment right now, 10 minutes after the match finished, but when I reflect on the last couple of weeks, and what I’ve been through…

“I have to say I’m very satisfied because Wimbledon has always been a childhood dream tournament of mine and I always wanted to be here and play on centre stage.

“I try to remind myself of how surreal the feeling is of being here.”

In his press conference:

On being tactically outplayed by Alcaraz

“I was inferior on the court. That’s it. He was a better player. He played every single shot better than I did.

“I don’t think I could have done something much more. Try to pump myself up maybe, yes. Get the crowd involved. That’s what was happening in the third. That got me going a little bit.”

On returning from knee surgery

“Yeah, that probably had an effect, particularly in the opening rounds. But as the tournament progressed, I felt better and better. I reached the finals.

“Some matches I played some really good tennis. Some matches I kind of battled my way through.

“Today I saw that I was just, as I said, half a step behind him in every sense. That’s the reality that I have to accept at the moment.”

Recommended reading

(Top photo: Getty Images)